Great Expectations
Rating a Stellar Class of NBA Rookies
1/12/04
A friend of mine once told me he believed that success in the NBA is based on opportunity. At the time, this theory was about as exciting to me as watching rainwater drizzle out of a leaky gutter, but since that time, I’ve started to think that maybe my friend had a point. What he was trying to say was that most players coming into the NBA from college or elsewhere are just about equally talented upon entering the league, and who ends up succeeding is essentially based on who gets the best opportunity to play and develop. Granted, there are always going to be some players coming into the league who are good enough to find their way no matter what, but some very talented players will get lost if not given a certain number of games and opportunities to adjust to the pro game. My friend’s best example of this phenomenon was Michigan State’s Shawn Respert, who came into the NBA as the number 8 pick in the 1995 draft looking like a pre-packaged pro player. Respert was athletic, could shoot with range and could handle the ball. He was taken just three picks behind Kevin Garnett. It looked pretty certain that this kid was going to come into the league and be a very good, if not great pro player.
Of course, if you’ve been following the NBA for the past decade or have any sense of foreshadowing at all, you know that Respert came out of the chute and fell directly into a pile of manure. Caught behind Glenn Robinson, Sherman Douglas and Johnny Newman, Respert only averaged 13.6 minutes a game during his rookie year, and his career never really even got started because he didn’t get a chance to play.
While it’s logical to argue that Respert would have blossomed if he had been given 30 minutes a night right off the bat, at the same time, it’s just as easy to be a little bit skeptical and look at Shawn Respert a different way. If he was good enough to make it in the NBA, he would have earned his minutes, made his coach notice him with the time he got and eventually broken out. I mean, it’s not like he was stuck behind a superstar in Johnny Newman. At that point in his career, Newman was still serviceable, but his ’95-’96 season averages of 10.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg and 1.9 apg were numbers Respert should have been able to duplicate with a blanket draped over his head.
In thinking about Shawn Respert as the emblem of players who would have made it in the NBA if they had a chance to play, it’s interesting to look at Respert’s backcourt mate from Michigan State, a guy who was really much more of a role player to Respert’s star in college and basically the man chiefly responsible for getting Respert the ball and watching him shoot. Eric Snow was taken 43rd in the 1995-1996 NBA Draft.
No matter what you think about Shawn Respert and why he didn’t succeed, the fact about Eric Snow is this: whether it was because he busted his ass in practice every day, had the opportunity to learn from the best (Gary Payton), or maybe was just better than scouts anticipated he would be, Eric Snow made himself a relevant NBA player. Today, though not at all flashy, he’s probably one of the 10 best point guards in the NBA. Eric Snow got his chance, saw a crack in the proverbial door and jammed a phone book in it to keep it propped open.
I guess the moral to this tale of two college teammates whose careers completely reversed directions upon arriving in the NBA is this: the hype machine sometimes lies, and none of us really know who is going to succeed or why. And no matter how often we are deceived, we continue to go back for more, because frankly, getting excited about new players coming into the league is fun. This season, despite people wanting to be negative about low-scoring games and zone defenses killing offense, the NBA has seen a resurgence in excitement; a buzz surrounding players coming into the league. In large part, that buzz has been generated by two players, rookies LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. But this year’s rookie class is one of the deepest in recent memory, and an amazing number of first-year players have stood up and made themselves relevant.
At this point in the season, most rookies find themselves staring directly into the base of the Rookie Wall. Now, whether you believe in the notion of the Rookie Wall or not, being that most of these guys have never played much more than 30 games in any one season, it’s safe to say that some of them are likely to see a decrease in production, whether it’s from injury or fatigue or both. What do you do when you come to a wall? You stop for a second and think about how to get over it. And while the rookies are pondering their course of action, now seems like a perfect time to take a look at how they stack up against one another. Consider it an informal ranking of this year’s most relevant rookies, 12 of them in all. As a tribute to the unexpected rise of Eric Snow, we’ll start this list at the bottom and work towards the top. In fact, why not start it with a player who, just like Eric Snow, was drafted in the second round:
The Eric Snow Quartet (Making the Most of Limited Opportunity)
Keith Bogans, SG, Orlando
Rookie Rank: #12
Actual Draft Position: 43rd pick overall (2nd round)
Fittingly, Bogans was not only drafted in the second round, but he was taken #43 overall, just like Snow was in 1995. So far this season, Bogans is averaging a Shawn Respert-esque 18 minutes and 5.2 points per game, but the comparisons to Respert end there, because when Bogans has gotten his chance, he’s produced. In the five games where Bogans has played 30 minutes or more, he’s averaged 13 ppg and an impressive 9.8 rpg (he’s only 6 foot 5) on 50 percent shooting from the field. He recently cracked the starting lineup for the woeful Magic and it looks like he’s there to stay.
Luke Ridnour, PG, Seattle
Rookie Rank: #11
Actual Draft Position: 14th pick overall
Just like Bogans, Ridnour has made the most of his opportunities to play. In the 12 games this season where he’s played 20 minutes or more, the man nicknamed “Cool Hand Luke” by his teammates has averaged 10.2 ppg, 3.8 apg and 1.4 spg. Though he can’t really hit the NBA trey consistently and his mid-range jumper is about as erratic as buckshot pellets flying out of a sawed-off shotgun, Ridnour has all the skills and the attitude to be a very good NBA point guard. Unfortunately for him, Seattle had a crowded backcourt (Brent Barry, Antonio Daniels, Flip Murray) at the start of the season that only got more crowded with the return of Ray Allen. Ridnour is currently glued to the bench, but he showed enough when he was playing to be included on this list.
Leandro Barbosa, PG, Phoenix
Rookie Rank: #10
Actual Draft Position: 28th pick overall
If you crawled into a cave 10 days ago and haven’t yet emerged, you probably don’t have much of an idea who Leandro Barbosa is. (You’re also probably in need of food and a shower, but that’s another story). Barbosa, a 21-year-old Brazilian point guard, is averaging a scant 5.0 ppg and 0.9 assists per game in just over 11 minutes a night. But in the wake of Stephon Marbury’s trade to New York, Barbosa has stepped into the starting lineup and has basically erupted, averaging 17 ppg, 3.3 apg and 2.6 steals per game. Probably the most impressive thing so far about Barbosa is his outside shooting (in his three starts he’s hit a total of 8 three pointers). Give him an inch to shoot and the ball is up before you know it – he’s got a quick release and an even quicker trigger. His scoring is already there, but if Barbosa continues to learn how to run an NBA team, by the end of this season, we may be looking at the sleeper pick in the 2003 draft.
Josh Howard, SF, Dallas
Rookie Rank: #9
Actual Draft Position: 29th pick overall
In December, with various Mavericks (including Michael Finley) battling injuries, Howard got his chance to play and became the latest proof that the process of evaluating potential NBA talent is at times about as logical as thinking that water wings will make you fly. Guys who just flat-out know how to play ball often get overlooked in favor of high-risk players with upside who quite often don’t pan out. Howard reminds me a lot of Shane Battier – both of them can hit an open jumper, both play hard, play good defense and can give you a little bit of everything on the court on any given night. Beginning on November 29 and continuing through the end of December, Howard got a chance to play 31 minutes per game, and over that stretch he averaged 11 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.5 spg and 0.9 blocks per game, including a 17-point, 13-rebound showing in a win over the Lakers. Howard’s playing time has since fizzled out as Finley has gotten healthy and Howard himself injured a hamstring, but last year’s consensus ACC Player of the Year has already shown that he had no business slipping to number 29 in the draft.
The Shawn Respert Three (Is Hype a Good Thing?)
Jarvis Hayes, SF, Washington
Rookie Rank: #8
Actual Draft Position: 10th pick overall
After averaging 18.3 ppg as a junior at Georgia and then looking very impressive in last year’s NCAA tournament, Hayes’ stock peaked and he bolted for the NBA. You can’t fault Hayes for doing so, and he’s looked pretty good so far this season, for a rookie. But that’s just it: in a season where so many rookies have been playing like five or ten-year vets (we’ll get to those guys in a bit), Hayes has been pretty good, but not as good as he should be. So far as a rookie, he’s averaging 32.4 minutes per game and 10.8 ppg, but the telltale sign that Hayes just isn’t there yet is the fact that he’s shooting just 40 percent. You see, Hayes is a player out of the mold of Glenn Robinson. When he’s on, he’s got a devastating mid-range jumper that’s tough to block because of his size. Last season at Georgia, Hayes shot over 50 percent from the floor, and a lot of those were jump shots. This year, Hayes has had the opportunity to play (in addition to his 32 minutes a game, he’s averaged a healthy 11 shots per game), and he’s been good at times, but he just hasn’t quite produced like a player of his talent should. Then again, Mike Miller once won Rookie of the Year with numbers that weren’t much better than Hayes’ are this year, so I guess to some extent I’ve been spoiled. Which brings me directly to…
TJ Ford, PG, Milwaukee
Rookie Rank: #7
Actual Draft Position: 8th pick overall
I’ll pick up right where I left off with Jarvis Hayes when I talk about TJ Ford. You see, in some years past (particularly the ’99-’00 season, where the aforementioned Mike Miller was Rookie of the Year while averaging under 12 points a game), a rookie like Ford would look great in comparison to his fellow first-year players. But this isn’t a normal year, and I can afford to nitpick. The good things you can say about Ford are that he knows how to run a team, is a natural leader, is fast as hell and can jump out of the gym for a guy who appears to be just a few inches taller than Earl Boykins (ever seen that highlight of Ford at Texas throwing down a ferocious one-handed tip dunk?) The knock on Ford is that he is probably the worst jump-shooter of any guard in the NBA. Night after night teams sag off of Ford, daring him to shoot because they know he’s quick enough to get by anyone on the perimeter, and he is rarely able to make them pay. Ford is averaging a healthy 6.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game, but his 36.6 percent shooting from the field doesn’t even tell the story of what a spotty outside shooter he is. Remember what I said about Luke Ridnour’s jumper being as erratic as buckshot coming out of a shotgun? TJ Ford’s j is like popcorn being blasted out of an elephant gun. What the hell does that mean? I don’t know, but I think you know what I’m saying. Some guys shoot 37 percent because they often have the ball in their hands with the shot clock winding down and are forced to take tough shots. Ford rarely has any of his jumpers contested and he still can’t hit.
For Ford, you get the sense that whether or not he learns to shoot will define his career. Even if he doesn’t, he’s going to be a good NBA point guard, kind of in the mold of our old friend Eric Snow. If he does learn to shoot, Ford could become one of the best.
Ronald Murray, SG, Seattle
Rookie Rank: #6 with an asterisk
Actual Draft Position: 42nd pick overall (2002 draft)
Yeah, I know that Flip Murray isn’t technically a rookie, but if you think about the fact that he played a total of 62 minutes during his first season, he might as well be a rook. I thought about putting Clippers’ rookie center Chris Kaman here, because he’s played well at times, but let’s face it, Kaman looks and acts so much like a rookie it’s not even funny. He’s got the goofiest shock of hair of anyone in the NBA and perhaps the free world, makes clumsy mistakes on the court, and you can just picture him being forced to lug Elton Brand and Corey Maggette’s luggage from city to city. I think Kaman is going to be a very good player and he’s made some mind-blowing plays this year, but if he looks like a rook, acts like a rook and plays like a rook…
Another reason to leave Kaman off this list in favor of Ronald Murray is that Murray illustrates an interesting point. Unlike Jarvis Hayes and TJ Ford, who have been pretty good but haven’t quite lived up to the hype generated by their respective draft positions, Murray has fallen victim to an even more deadly beast: completely unexpected success.
Tossed into the starting lineup at the beginning of the season with Ray Allen injured, Murray came out early on as one of the season’s biggest success stories: a player from a Division II school (Shaw University) absolutely setting the league on fire. Through Seattle’s first 11 games, Murray was averaging 23.9 points per game and looked like he was going to be one of the great sports stories of the year. Then December arrived, and things started to go slightly downhill for Murray. Questions started to arise about his ability to play defense, but he was still having some big games, including a 24-point, 10-assist game against Denver on December 20. Since that night, which not coincidentally was one night before Ray Allen’s return, Murray has become what everyone thought he was: a second-string player who plays like one. These days he plays inconsistent minutes and shoots inconsistently when he plays – he’s scored in double figures in only one of Seattle’s last nine games.
In some ways, Murray is like Eric Snow and Shawn Respert combined. He came into the league with little fanfare like Snow, got his chance to play, and exploded onto the scene. In doing so, he created Respert-sized expectations that he apparently couldn’t sustain.
The King James Choir (Believe It)
Chris Bosh, PF/C, Toronto
Rookie Rank: #5
Actual Draft Position: 4th overall pick
More than any other player in this year’s draft, I think Bosh benefited from the fact that others before him have failed to succeed when huge expectations were placed on them. With the spectre of former number-one pick Kwame Brown (thus far one of the worst #1 picks of all time) looming not too far, most weren’t expecting much of Bosh this year. Like Brown, he was a big man coming to the NBA virtually right out of high school, though he did play one year of college basketball. While few doubted that Bosh was eventually going to be a good NBA player, most of us prognosticating types thought he was years away, being that he was only 19 years old and had the physique of a 6-foot-10 emaciated dinosaur at the start of the season. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that he was going to get pounded by bigger power forwards in the pros. To a certain extent, that’s been true, as Bosh has recently broken down with some injuries, but through the season’s first 30-plus games, he’s been a strong inside presence for Toronto, averaging 10.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg and 1.5 blocks per game. When you see Bosh step out on the floor and kiss a 16-foot jumper off the glass, it’s tough not to think of Tim Duncan, who was also pretty skinny in college but has since bulked up. I’m not saying Bosh is going to be as good as Duncan or Kevin Garnett (the other player he’s often compared to), but he’s got talent, age and opportunity on his side.
Kirk Hinrich, PG, Chicago
Rookie Rank: #4
Actual Draft Position: 7th overall pick
You might argue with putting Hinrich here ahead of Bosh, and I’m not going to duel to the death over this one. I’ll admit it, when Hinrich was at Kansas I really couldn’t stand him – the matted down hair plastered to his forehead, the annoying raised fist over his head whenever he hit a three, the general appearance that he was the kind of guy who would punch you in the weiner if it meant he’d get a lay-up out of it. But whether you like Hinrich or not, he’s a hell of a player, and it’s in part because he’s just the sort of dirty bastard you hate playing against. Bulls’ Head Coach Scott Skiles recently said Hinrich was probably his best player, which is pretty impressive considering the talent the Bulls have on their roster. Hinrich’s season stats (10.3 ppg, 5.5 apg and 1.1 steals on 39 percent shooting) aren’t exactly mind-blowing, but since the start of December he’s averaged 12 ppg and 6.3 apg. Furthermore, Hinrich is one of those players where stats don’t tell the whole story. Some people think that a defensive player’s worth is based on how many steals or blocks he gets, but watch Hinrich play and you’ll see that he plays D harder than anyone on the court, and he rarely get lost or ends up out of position. Whether Skiles is right or not about Hinrich being the Bulls’ best player, most NBA coaches don’t say that kind of thing about rookies unless they’ve earned it.
Dwyane Wade, PG/SG, Miami
Rookie Rank: #3
Actual Draft Position: 5th overall pick
If I were basing these rankings on which players I like the most among all of this year’s rookies, I’d probably have Wade at #1. Ever since Wade dropped 29 points, 11 boards, 11 assists and 4 blocks on Kentucky in last year’s NCAA Tournament and he was taken 5th in the draft, most of the experts were saying he was going to be good right away in the NBA. To be honest, it was hard for me to picture. Wade was expected to play point guard in the pros, and the two things I questioned were his ball-handling and, more than that, his outside shooting. Turns out my concerns really didn’t matter. I was definitely wrong about the ball-handling, and while Wade’s outside shooting hasn’t been great (he’s only made 9 treys this season), you don’t need to be able to shoot that consistently when you can get to the hole like Wade can. Watching him dissect Kentucky in the tourney last year, I couldn’t help but think of Latrell Sprewell (Golden State version), and this year those comparisons have held up. Wade attacks the hole with the same intensity as Spree, and he’s an absolutely explosive finisher. Everyone talks about LeBron and Carmelo, but Wade’s numbers merit his inclusion in the Holy Trinity of NBA rookies – though he’s currently out with a wrist injury, through 29 games Wade has averaged 16.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.5 apg and 1.3 spg on 45 percent shooting. More importantly, he’s helped make the Miami Heat watchable again. If you haven’t checked out the Heat recently because you’re still holding onto your image of them from the Heat-Knicks glory days of ugly offense, gritty D and a terribly awful product on the floor, give the Heat another chance. With Lamar Odom, Eddie Jones, Caron Butler and, most importantly, Wade, the Heat play basketball how it’s supposed to be: fast.
Carmelo Anthony, SF, Denver
Rookie Rank: #2
Actual Draft Position: 3rd overall pick
I know a lot of people will argue that Carmelo is better than LeBron, because on some nights I’ve found myself thinking the same thing. As good as Carmelo Anthony is, I think there’s a bit of visual deception at play that makes people think he’s better than he really is. What I mean to say is, Carmelo’s so smooth on the court in everything he does that I think it makes us willing to overlook his shortcomings. Carmelo is so nice to watch that he even looks good tossing up bricks. True, it’s not really fair to fault someone for being as polished as Carmelo is. And there are nights when he’s not only the best rookie in the league, but he’s the best player on the court, like the night he scored 37 points in a one-point Denver win over Houston.
LeBron James, PG/SF, Cleveland
Rookie Rank: #1
Actual Draft Position: 1st overall pick
But let’s not get confused here. While Carmelo may be the best scorer amongst all rookies and sure is on his way to a hell of an NBA career, the kid in Cleveland is nicknamed King James for a reason. LeBron gets to wear the crown because right now he’s playing on a different level. Not only is LeBron averaging more points, assists and steals than Carmelo while shooting better from both the field and the line, but he’s doing it with virtually no one else to take the pressure away from him on the offensive end. These days, LeBron’s number one option to pass to in the 4th quarter might just be Eric Williams, whose career 9.2 ppg isn’t exactly scaring anyone (remember, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, really the only other established scorer on the Cavs’ roster, sits out most 4th quarters because of his defensive deficiencies). With so much defensive pressure on him, it’s a small miracle that LeBron’s field goal percentage is as high as it is (42 percent). Meanwhile, in Denver, Carmelo has a number of capable scorers to pass to, gets a lot more open looks and is still shooting under 40 percent. This isn’t meant to be a knock on Carmelo; it’s more meant to point out that LeBron is just simply a better player at this point. From an offensive standpoint at least, LeBron basically does everything you’d want someone to do to help your team: he handles the ball, he scores, he passes and he rebounds. Surround LeBron with the same talent that Carmelo has around him in Denver, and we might be looking at the greatest rookie season in NBA history.
Instead, I guess we’ll just have to settle for what we’ve got: a group of kids who have reminded us that sometimes, false expectations aren’t such a bad thing.
Sometimes things are better than we expect.
-Matt Stroup Copyright ©2004 instant-replays.com
